Could soybeans go to $17? – Agweek

The soybean market, Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management says, is in need of retracement.

But with constant new reports trimming expectations of the South American crop and constant new buyers coming to the US for beans, the price just keeps climbing.

Michelle Rook of AgweekTV said soybeans have gained $2.70 since Jan. 18, which Martinson called “just phenomenal.”

Rook asked Martinson, if this continues, how high could it go? On this week’s Agweek Market Wrap, Martinson said if the price climbs above contract highs, he could see it climbing to $16.70 or, “and I hate to say it,” even $17.

Conab made a 15 million metric ton cut to Brazilian soybean estimates, far more than the US Department of Agriculture’s cut of 5 million metric tons. And Martinson said that number could get trimmed even more if forecasts of more hot, dry conditions come true.

Exporters are getting nervous, and old crop and new crops sales are showing that. The US has sold more than 3.3 million metric tons in the past 10 days or so, Martinson said.

“It tells us they’re worried about supplies in that late summer time frame,” he said.

Things aren’t looking quite as dire for corn as for soybeans in South America, at least for now. Brazil is just planting its second crop of corn, so that could go either way as of right now.

Still, corn finished the week strong.

“I think this market is still very volatile,” Martinson said.

Wheat got pulled along by soybeans, too, but also got a little push from geopolitical events. Russia’s military maneuvers in the Black Sea region have many concerned Russia soon will invade Ukraine, which would shut down Ukraine exporting capabilities, which could send customers to the US

“It sent not just wheat but crude oil sharply higher on Friday,” Martinson said.

Besides the Russia-Ukraine situation, the weather in the US southern Plains and the conditions into which winter wheat will come out of dormancy also is a concern. It has been dry, and forecasts don’t look favorable for the crop, Martinson said.

If that continues, spring wheat will need to buy acres.

Cattle set new contract highs this week, then ended lower on Thursday and Friday. Martinson said higher than expected inflation numbers could impact the meat markets as consumers have less discretionary spending.

Another concern for cattle is that boxed beef struggled, even with the Super Bowl this weekend. Martinson said that may indicate lower demand.

Hogs and cattle continue to move along together. Even with continued tightening of hog supplies, Martinson said he could see the hog market getting a “clean up” and pulled down a little soon.

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